Olympic Peninsula classified as being in severe drought by federal drought monitor

Forecasts are heading in the wrong direction

The current drought outlook for the Olympic Peninsula just took another step in the wrong direction. In their weekly update of drought conditions across the country, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) changed its classification for the Olympic Peninsula region from “moderate” to “severe” drought. According to the USDM, a severe drought classification can bring potential impacts of likely crop and pasture damage, water shortages, and water restrictions. In response to current conditions, some communities and water systems on the peninsula have already begun anticipating low water supply.

There is a drought emergency declaration in the Dungeness River watershed on the Olympic Peninsula

Preparing for drought impacts

Some local governments will submit applications for grant funding recently made available by the Department of Ecology to address hardships caused by drought. The 2019 Legislature appropriated $2 million to Ecology for drought response. Grant funding can be used for projects like drilling emergency standby wells, or helping fish hatcheries maintain cool and clean water for fish.

On the north end of the Peninsula Clallam Bay/Sekiu, Upper Fairview, and Island View water systems have already begun to activate water shortage response plans. Water shortage plans help water systems  conserve available water supplies to the extent possible, and to help determine if additional sources of water supply should be developed. Currently in Stage 2 of their plans, these systems are encouraging customers to conserve water and prepare for a more resource-protective response later this summer.

Warm and dry weather

We have had an unseasonably warm and dry spring, including the fourth-driest March on record, averaged statewide. Total precipitation on the western Olympic Peninsula from January thru May was the third driest since 1895. Even after a memorable bout of snow in February across much of Western Washington, we just didn’t have the snowpack or spring weather necessary for healthy water supplies.

Record low streamflows are forecast for the Elwha River

Low streamflows   

Predictably, streamflows on the peninsula are substantially lower than normal.  Most of them are in the bottom tenth percentile and some rivers like the Satsop and Wynoochee have hit record flows on some days this spring.   The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northwest River Forecast Center is forecasting that the Elwha and Skokomish Rivers may experience their second lowest seasonal (April – September) runoff this year. 

Different criteria for state drought declaration

Recently, Gov. Inslee officially declared a drought emergency declaration for 27 watersheds including the entire Olympic Peninsula. The criteria for drought declaration is different than what is used by the USDM. There are two factors considered for drought declaration: The watershed must be at or below 75 percent of normal flow, and that the low water would cause undue hardship for agriculture, domestic water supply users and fishery uses.

A drought emergency declaration allows Ecology to expedite response actions like water right permitting and providing funding to local governments to address hardships caused by drought. Some examples of drought-relief projects that funding might be used for include leasing water rights, implementing water conservation programs, and developing alternative sources of water supplies for communities, farmers, and fish hatcheries.

Federal drought forecast

Ecology relies on a variety of data sources to evaluate Washington’s current and future water supply. At the federal level, the National Drought Mitigation Center releases a weekly map of locations in the U.S. that are experiencing drought. The USDM relies on experts to synthesize the best available data and work with local observers to interpret the information. The USDM also incorporates ground truthing and information about how drought is affecting people, through a network of more than 450 observers across the country, including state climatologists, National Weather Service staff, Extension agents, and hydrologists.

By Jeff Zenk, Southwest Region communications

Water curtailments for the Chehalis River basin

Notice applies to outdoor water use only—mostly irrigation

The curtailment notice affects junior water right holders in the Chehalis River basin.
We have had an unseasonably warm and dry spring, including the fourth-driest March on record. As a result, even after a wet winter and a memorable bout of snow in February across much of Western Washington, we are now dealing with drought conditions in parts of our state.

The curtailment notice affects junior water right holders in the Chehalis River basin.

Earlier this week, we notified 93 junior water right holders in the Chehalis River basin that their access to surface water for irrigation is curtailed until the rains return and streamflows increase in the state’s second-largest watershed and drainage basin.

The water users have rights that are junior to (younger than) the 1976 instream flows set by state rule for the basin. Those junior water right holders must now stop diverting water from the Chehalis, Newaukum, Satsop, and Wynoochee rivers and their tributaries when flows are not being met to keep the water in the stream.

This is the fifth consecutive year we have issued curtailment orders or notices for junior surface water irrigation uses in the Chehalis basin to comply with the regulatory requirements. It is the first year that we will also be enforcing this rule for four man-made water ski lakes in Thurston and Lewis counties. The curtailment notice does not apply to indoor water use or to water for livestock.

As we’ve done in prior years, our staff will periodically visit the basin and are available to answer questions.

You can find the latest information on instream flows and contact information for our Chehalis basin staff on our website:

• Lower Chehalis watershed 
• Upper Chehalis watershed

Unusual spring weather

The Chehalis basin receives most of its runoff from rain, with some minor contributions from snowpack at higher elevations in headwater streams of the southern Olympic Mountains and the Willapa Hills. Streamflows in the basin are lower than normal for this time of year. It’s been warm and dry in the Chehalis River basin and there is little melting snow left to compensate for the tightening water supply.

Drought and instream flows

Last week, Gov. Inslee officially declared a drought emergency declaration for the Chehalis River basin, along with 26 other watersheds. There are two factors considered for drought declaration: The watershed must be at or below 75 percent of normal flow, and that the low water would cause undue hardship for agriculture or domestic water supply users.

The Newaukum River.

A drought emergency declaration allows Ecology to expedite things like water right permitting and providing funding to local governments to address hardships caused by drought. Some examples of drought-relief projects that funding might be used for include leasing water rights, implementing water conservation programs, and developing alternative sources of water supplies for communities, farmers, and fish hatcheries.

However, the drought declaration is not why there are water right curtailments in the Chehalis basin. We are required by law to protect senior water right users and streamflows for rivers and streams to ensure there is enough water to meet the needs of people, farms, and fish. One of the most effective tools for protecting streamflows is to set instream flows, which are flow levels adopted into rule.

An instream flow rule was established in 1976 for Chehalis basin streams. Since then, newer water rights have been issued that are junior to the flow rule. When flows drop below the adopted levels, junior water rights (those established after the instream flow rule was adopted into law) can be temporarily interrupted in an effort to keep the protected amount of water in the stream. This means junior water rights are curtailed from withdrawing water until streamflows rise above the established flow levels.

Setting instream flows protects our streams, rivers, and lakes from new withdrawals that would harm instream resources including fish, wildlife, recreation, aesthetics, water quality, and navigation.

Read more about protecting streamflows.

By Jeff Zenk, Southwest Region communications

Watching the water supply

Snow is piling up at Paradise on Mt. Rainier. Photo: National Park Service webcam

This blog post is part of an ongoing series about water supply. Please click here to read the previous post. If you want to learn more, visit our Washington water supply information page.

It’s a new year and a good time to check in on our statewide water supply. Winter usually puts less pressure on our water supply because of reduced demand for water in homes and less agricultural irrigation. But communities and farms are already starting to plan for the drier and warmer months -- and experts are watching the conditions closely.

Looking back at 2016

For Washington state as a whole, 2016 was a slightly warmer, wetter-than-normal year. Temperature-wise, the state was 1 to 2 degrees warmer than average annually, and March through May tied 1992 for record warmth.

The balmy spring caused our snowpack to melt at record rates. In early April, the state snowpack was slightly above normal. By late May, it was less than 50 percent of normal. This raised some concern that water supplies might be pinched later in the summer, but a switch to wetter conditions and more moderate temperatures in June and July made things manageable. Still, there were some watersheds in southwest Washington where dry conditions caused total runoff during the spring and summer to be even lower than 2015 – a drought year.

This fall, the warmth returned along with long stretches of rainy days. Averaged statewide, October and November were the second-warmest on record (3.3 degrees above normal) and wettest on record (6.61 inches above normal). The pattern changed in December, though, when cooler, drier weather swept in. Most of the state was chilly – with many areas a few degrees below normal – for the first few weeks of the month.

Status of our supplies

We’re starting 2017 with good snowpack. Let’s take a closer look at water supply as of Jan. 5 and forecasts for the future:

The sun peeks out over a snowy scene on Hurricane Ridge. 

The Olympic Mountains have 126 percent of normal snowpack
for this time of year. Photo: National Park Service webcam

Weather and outlook | Looking ahead, state climatologists are expecting La Niña conditions (cool and wet) to shape our regional climate, but there’s a good chance we’ll switch into neutral conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) later this winter. Forecast models aren’t clear on temperature heading into spring, but they are predicting wetter-than-normal weather. Beyond spring, the forecast models aren’t saying much.

Mountain snowpack | Mountain snow is critical because it serves as a reservoir during spring and summer, gradually melting and feeding rivers and streams. Our mountain snowpack got a late start this year but is currently looking good. The lower Columbia, central Puget Sound and Olympic regions, in particular, are doing great with more than 125 percent of normal snowpack for this time of year. The mountains near Spokane are somewhat behind schedule, but they’re still looking decent with 77 percent of normal snowpack.

Rivers and streams | Experts are seeing typical conditions for our state’s rivers and streams. Daily streamflows are mostly in the normal range. Flows are dropping below normal during cold snaps, when snowmelt stops.

Agriculture | The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reports that storage levels at the five reservoirs in the Yakima River basin, a major agricultural center, are at 107 percent of normal. Precipitation from October to the end of December is about 94 percent of normal in the Yakima region.

Drinking water | Drinking water supplies in our state’s big cities are in good shape. At the beginning of September, Everett’s water storage was 110 percent of normal for that time of year. Seattle’s combined reservoir storage is also above normal for this time of year. Tacoma reports that both precipitation and snowpack levels are above normal at the Lynn Lake monitoring site near the Howard Hanson Reservoir.

How you can help

We all have a role to play in conserving water, even in winter! Here one way you can make a difference:

• Insulate outdoor spigots to prevent them from freezing and bursting. If you have an outdoor garden hose, remove and drain it. This video from the Saving Water Partnership has more information.

For more tips, visit our water conservation page.

By Kristin Johnson-Waggoner, Water Resources Program communications manager