Wait, how can there be a drought when it’s raining?

While recent rain is helping many parts of the state, more than a
few scattered showers are needed to fix Washington's drought.

For the past few months, Washington’s weather has been all over the map.

Residents of Spokane and the south east experienced a relatively damp spring, while much of western and central Washington have seen warmer than normal temperatures and low precipitation since April.

And for most of the summer, the usually fire-resistant west side has had a higher risk of wildfires relative to historical norms than has most of Eastern Washington, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

As of July 11, the U.S. Drought Monitor still shows abnormally dry to severe drought conditions in all but the southeast corner of our state. Five percent of the state’s rivers are at record low, and many locations in western and north central Washington are expecting between 50 and 75 percent of normal stream flow through September.

So what does this all mean when more than half the state is in a declared drought emergency?

Jeff Marti, Ecology’s Water Resources Program drought coordinator, says recent precipitation has been a welcome change, but it hasn’t made up the deficit caused by warmer than usual conditions and a lack of snow pack.

“Over the last few days, some parts of the state have gotten some good shots of rain, and some places, like the Olympic Peninsula, have really needed it," Marti said. "Some rivers have rebounded nicely, but about a quarter of our rivers are still experiencing flows much below normal. It will take continuing rainfall to make that more than a temporary rebound. Our lowest flow season is still ahead.”

Conditions by region

While cooler weather and some rain has bumped up flows that supply irrigation water and support important fish migration in Central Washington, water supply remains in flux. Low reservoir levels in the Yakima Basin – the 7th lowest storage volume in 44 years – mean farmers must remain vigilant and fish managers on alert.

From arid areas to sudden downpours, weather patterns east of the Columbia River have meanwhile been wide ranging. The northeast portions of Pend Oreille and Stevens counties are in severe drought, while the east side’s midsection has seen thunderstorms and flash flood warnings several times over the past few weeks.

Crop damage from heavy rains was reported in Okanogan and Ferry counties, although NOAA’s National Weather Service shows total regional precipitation hovering just under average for the past month.

Conditions in the southeast have mirrored the majority of the U.S., and are wetter than in past years. Walla Walla basin water users have seen some low flows, but that’s mainly due to normal demand across the border in Oregon.

Taken as a whole, Washington’s lingering dehydration – the 13th driest July-June period ever recorded in the state – stands in stark contrast to the rest of the country. According to NOAA, the continental U.S. had its wettest 12 months on record, even as the Pacific Northwest became more parched. And with much of the summer yet to come, resolving this drought will require more than scattered showers.

Washington precipitation departure from average (inches), from July 1-15, 2019. Image courtesy of NOAA.

Drought in the rainforest

Known for rain, city of Forks struggles with water supply

You know something is wrong when one of the wettest places in the entire country is worried about water. That’s what’s happening in the city of Forks on the west side of the Olympic Peninsula. Forks, famous for the Twilight Series and rain, is experiencing a drought. 

One of the wettest places in the country

Nestled in the temperate rainforest, Forks is technically the third wettest place in the lower 48 with 119 inches of annual rainfall. By comparison, Seattle is 140 miles east and gets about 37.5 inches year—that’s less than Dallas, Texas.  And the wettest spot in the continental United States isn’t too far from Forks either. Just to the south in Grays Harbor County, the Aberdeen Reservoir gets a whopping 131 inches a year. Still, Fork’s massive amount of rainfall is certainly enough to justify its soggy reputation.

The Calahwa River in Forks has hit record low daily flows this spring

A warm and dry spring

So why is a place that gets so much rain concerned about water? Forks, along with the rest of the state’s Pacific Ocean coast, experienced the second driest spring on record since measuring started in 1895. In addition, we had the eighth warmest May on record which melted the mountain snowpack much faster and earlier than normal. The combination of the lack of spring rain and early snow melt has created a water double whammy for the Olympic Peninsula.

State and federal drought determinations

Gov. Jay Inslee declared a drought emergency for the area and the US Drought Monitor recently determined that most of the Olympic Peninsula was facing “severe” drought. Those determinations reflect what we’re seeing on the ground. Peninsula rivers and streams such as the Satsop, Hoh, Calahwa, Hoko, and Elwha have recently hit all-time record low daily flows.

Forks is feeling the heat

In Forks, where the city relies on wells to provide drinking water, officials are growing increasingly concerned about having enough water heading into the summer months.  Water levels in the city’s wells are dropping by about a foot a week and Forks has already asked residents to voluntarily begin to conserve water. Officials expect a decision about mandatory water conservation in coming weeks.

The Salmon River south of Forks has a fish hatchery and dangerously low flows

Ecology is working to find solutions

We recently held an informational meeting in Forks where Mike Gallagher, Ecology’s water resources manager for southwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula,  gave a presentation about current and projected water supply conditions. Some attendees represented small water systems in the area and told us they are also experiencing dwindling water supplies. These small water suppliers are now discussing contingency plans that involve mandatory conservation, water rationing, and the need to truck water to their customers.

Forks officials are submitting applications in hopes of taking advantage of grant funding recently made available by Ecology to address hardships caused by the drought. In 2019, state lawmakers appropriated $2 million to Ecology for drought response. Grant funding is used for projects such as drilling emergency standby wells, or helping hatcheries maintain cool and clean water for fish. 

By Jeff Zenk, Southwest Region communications

Olympic Peninsula classified as being in severe drought by federal drought monitor

Forecasts are heading in the wrong direction

The current drought outlook for the Olympic Peninsula just took another step in the wrong direction. In their weekly update of drought conditions across the country, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) changed its classification for the Olympic Peninsula region from “moderate” to “severe” drought. According to the USDM, a severe drought classification can bring potential impacts of likely crop and pasture damage, water shortages, and water restrictions. In response to current conditions, some communities and water systems on the peninsula have already begun anticipating low water supply.

There is a drought emergency declaration in the Dungeness River watershed on the Olympic Peninsula

Preparing for drought impacts

Some local governments will submit applications for grant funding recently made available by the Department of Ecology to address hardships caused by drought. The 2019 Legislature appropriated $2 million to Ecology for drought response. Grant funding can be used for projects like drilling emergency standby wells, or helping fish hatcheries maintain cool and clean water for fish.

On the north end of the Peninsula Clallam Bay/Sekiu, Upper Fairview, and Island View water systems have already begun to activate water shortage response plans. Water shortage plans help water systems  conserve available water supplies to the extent possible, and to help determine if additional sources of water supply should be developed. Currently in Stage 2 of their plans, these systems are encouraging customers to conserve water and prepare for a more resource-protective response later this summer.

Warm and dry weather

We have had an unseasonably warm and dry spring, including the fourth-driest March on record, averaged statewide. Total precipitation on the western Olympic Peninsula from January thru May was the third driest since 1895. Even after a memorable bout of snow in February across much of Western Washington, we just didn’t have the snowpack or spring weather necessary for healthy water supplies.

Record low streamflows are forecast for the Elwha River

Low streamflows   

Predictably, streamflows on the peninsula are substantially lower than normal.  Most of them are in the bottom tenth percentile and some rivers like the Satsop and Wynoochee have hit record flows on some days this spring.   The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northwest River Forecast Center is forecasting that the Elwha and Skokomish Rivers may experience their second lowest seasonal (April – September) runoff this year. 

Different criteria for state drought declaration

Recently, Gov. Inslee officially declared a drought emergency declaration for 27 watersheds including the entire Olympic Peninsula. The criteria for drought declaration is different than what is used by the USDM. There are two factors considered for drought declaration: The watershed must be at or below 75 percent of normal flow, and that the low water would cause undue hardship for agriculture, domestic water supply users and fishery uses.

A drought emergency declaration allows Ecology to expedite response actions like water right permitting and providing funding to local governments to address hardships caused by drought. Some examples of drought-relief projects that funding might be used for include leasing water rights, implementing water conservation programs, and developing alternative sources of water supplies for communities, farmers, and fish hatcheries.

Federal drought forecast

Ecology relies on a variety of data sources to evaluate Washington’s current and future water supply. At the federal level, the National Drought Mitigation Center releases a weekly map of locations in the U.S. that are experiencing drought. The USDM relies on experts to synthesize the best available data and work with local observers to interpret the information. The USDM also incorporates ground truthing and information about how drought is affecting people, through a network of more than 450 observers across the country, including state climatologists, National Weather Service staff, Extension agents, and hydrologists.

By Jeff Zenk, Southwest Region communications